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UDC 004.9

ANALYSIS AND PROCESSES MODELING OF GROUP BEHAVIOR BASED ON THE SYSTEMS OF DIFFERENTIAL KINETIC EQUATIONS AND THE METHOD OF ALMOST PERIODIC FUNCTIONS

A. G. Smychkova, post-graduate student, Moscow Technological University (MIREA); This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
E. G. Andrianova, PhD (in Technical Sciences), associate professor, Moscow Technological University (MIREA); This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The aim of this work is to develop methods for analyzing and modeling group behavior and managing user actions in complex social systems, based on systems of differential kinetic equations and the theory of almost periodic functions. To compare the obtained theoretical results with the observed data an electoral campaign for distributing the votes of voters during the pre-election race of 2015 – 2016 to the post of US President between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was chosen. This paper presents a diagram of the transitions between voters' preferences with attitude towards to candidates to describe the electoral campaign, on the basis of which kinetic differential equations describing the change in moods over time were obtained. In addition to the proportionality factors that affect the transitions between voters' states, the times of change of their views were included in the model. Processing of existing sociological data using the method of almost – periodic functions allow to determine the numerical value of a number of parameters of the proposed model. In particular, the average values of the times for changing the views of voters were determined. The selection of the coefficients in kinetic differential equations based on observations of social behavior of the voters makes it possible to obtain good correspondence between theoretical results of the model and the observed data. This suggests that the description of group behavior of users in social systems based on differential kinetic equations may allow solving an inverse kinetic problem and determine the coefficients of equations from the observed data. In this case, a model for predicting and changing the preferences of group selection participants can be developed.

Key words: group selection, social systems, modeling of voters’ behavior, kinetic differential equations, election campaign, transition diagram, almost periodic functions, forecasting.

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