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UDC 519.715

ESTIMATING THE STATE OF GEOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT OF LOCALITY URBAN SYSTEMS USING PROBABILISTIC MODELS

V. V. Kirakovskiy, PhD (technical sciences), assistant professor, RSREU, Ryazan; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. N. Korotaev, PhD (technical sciences), assistant professor, RSREU, Ryazan; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. M. Belitskiy, PhD (technical sciences), director of a special operational and technical center; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. N. Pylkin, PhD (technical sciences), full professor, Head of the Department, RSREU, Ryazan; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The problem of supporting decision-making on buildings and structures placement using probabilistic models is considered. The safety of living on this territory depends on the results of the above accommodation, which confirms the relevance of this task. The aim of the work is to assess the state of geological environment locality urban systems with the help of probabilistic models. With such an assessment, it is possible to give a qualified, reasonable answer to the question of expediency and safety of carrying out urban development works on this territory. A methodological approach based on the representation of possible geodynamic states of geological environment of an urban system of a locality as a simple stream of events with subsequent construction of a mathematical model in the form of the system of Kolmogorov's differential equations is proposed.

Key words: locality urban system, probability model, Kolmogorov equations for probabilistic states.

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