UDC 550.343.6
INTEGRAL RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL OF GEODYNAMIC ORIGIN EMERGENCY SITUATIONS
A. O. Faddeev, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), associate professor, professor of the Chair of Mathematics and Information Technologies of Management of the Academy of law management of the Federal penal service of Russia, Ryazan, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-7259-1693, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
S. A. Pavlova, Ph.D. (Tech.), senior lecturer, Chair of Mathematics and Information Technologies of Management of the Academy of law management of the Federal penal service of Russia, Ryazan, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0001-8634-9163, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The aim of the work is construction and analysis of a mathematical model for assessing the risk of emergencies of geodynamic origin for regions within which the main initiating seismic events take place, and then successive aftershocks at various depths were recorded within the same territories. When constructing a mathematical model, methods of continuum mechanics and methods of the theory of differential equations were applied. The mathematical model presented allows calculating displacements in geological environment based on the sequence of occurring seismic events. The model can be used both in real time and in a prognostic sense.
Key words: Mathematical model, geodynamic stability, seismic activity, aftershock, foreshock, risk assessment; shear deformations; displacement vector.