UDC 539.37; 551.24
MODELING OF SEISMIC RISKS ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE OBJECTS LOCATION TERRITORIES
V. P. Koryachko, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), full professor, Head of CAD Department, RSREU, Ryazan, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0003-0272-673X, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
V. A. Minaev, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), full professor, Moscow University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia named after V. Ya. Kikot, Moscow, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-5342-0864, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
R. O. Stepanov, Ph.D. (Tech.), associate professor, Director of the Directorate for Arctic Programs, Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0001-9124-5924, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. O. Faddeev, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), associate professor, Moscow University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia named after V. Ya. Kikot, Moscow, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-7259-1693, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article presents a mathematical technology for assessing the places of possible geodynamic disasters occurrence, in particular, earthquakes, based on the analysis of geodynamic instability, namely, hori- zontal gradients of gravitational field anomalies in isostatic reduction. The aim of the article is to create a system of mathematical models that form the basis of seismic risk assessment technology. Special attention is paid to probabilistic mathematical model of seismic risk assessment based on the representation of possible geodynamic states of geological environment as the simplest event flow. The main results in practical implementation of mathematical models of seismic risk assessment developed by the authors on the examples of the Baikal region, the territories of the north of Japan and the Russian Far East are presented and considered
Key words: : mathematical modeling, seismic risk, gravity field anomalies, geodynamic hazards, stresses and displacements, geological environment, earthquakes.