UDC 519.816
ALGORITHM OF INSURANCE RATES MANAGEMENT IN CONDITIONS OF INCOMPLETE INFORMATION
A. V. Moiseev, Ph.D (Phys. and Math.), associate professor Department of Economic Cybernetics, PSU, Penza, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0001-9534-2465, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. Yu. Kindaev, post-graduate student, Junior researcher of the research Department, PenzSTU, Penza, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-3855-1970, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The problem of optimal control in the conditions of insufficient statistical information for decisionmaking is considered. The aim of the work is to build an algorithm for managing the insurance rate in the conditions of incomplete information. Statistical data are collected for 4 regions of the Volga region (Saratov, Penza, Ulyanovsk and Samara) on yields of such crops as: winter wheat, spring wheat, spring barley and winter rye for the period from 1980 to 2015 in the context of municipalities. The cluster analysis of municipalities on productivity of agricultural crops for allocation of clusters is carried out. On the basis of correlation analysis the objects of insurance field with pairwise independent indices of productivity and high dependency in crop cultivation are singled out. The algorithm of portfolio management including both objects of insurance being pairwise independent on the yield as well as the objects with a significant share of interconnectedness is proposed. The portfolio constructed in this way takes into account correlation of losses under individual contracts when calculating the risk, which will help to increase the stability of insurance company.
Key words: management algorithm, insurance rate, effective management, risk, correlation, dependent and independent data.