UDC 004.724
STOCHASTIC NETWORKS USAGE WHEN PLANNING PROFIT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE LOSSES
A. P. Shibanov, Dr. Sc. (Tech.), full professor, RSREU, Ryazan, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-9438-8338, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. D. Nguyen, post-graduate student, RSREU, Ryazan, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-3695-4557, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
A. M. Pham, post-graduate student, RSREU, Ryazan, Russia;
orcid.org/0000-0002-3055-3568, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The aim of the work is to use GERT-networks to solve the problems of calculating the real profit of the enterprise taking into account negative factors. For each operation of GERT-network, the planned optimal profit value is determined. The profit of individual operations is summarized. For each operation, a random value of profit losses is determined by the imperfection of simulated process. Losses are determined either by a functional relationship between random variables or independently on the basis of statistical data. The planned profit is specified taking into account its losses using positive and negative random values of GERTnetwork. Elementary basic transformations in GERT-network with positive and negative random variables are analyzed. The possibility of converting GERT-network with positive and negative random variables to a
single equivalent arc obtaining probability distribution density of its output value is proved.
Key words: GERT-networks, random variable, inversion formula, probability density, characteristic function, functional dependence of distributions, inverse function, normal distribution, planned profit, loss of profit.